Friday, June 14, 2013

The Voter Fraud Story You Haven't Heard

Voter fraud has been in the news with scandal from the campaign of now-Congressman Joe Garcia and just yesterday the same fraud committed by campaign aides of City of Miami Commissioner Francis X. Suarez who is vying for the Mayor's seat this November.

Real voter fraud is much more organized and conspiratorial then the Internet schemes of these two related voter fraud scandals. Real voter fraud stories are rarely ever heard about because the fraudsters completely got away with it.

Voter fraud usually comes in 5 ways:
  1. Voter Registration Fraud
  2. Absentee Ballot Fraud
  3. Illegally or Improperly "Assisting" Others to Vote their Absentee Ballot
  4. Vote-Buying
  5. Hacking Voter Machine or Vote Counting Database

There are few thoughts to figure out which kind of fraud happened and who perpetrated it:
  1. Voter Registration Fraud usually occurs by "changes of address" schemes to register voters who live outside the voting district to participate in the election (such as out-of-towners, homeless, public employees, etc.. The real residence of these voters can be proven by real estate tax searches, corporation records and other easily accessible public databases.
  2. Absentee Ballot Fraud usually occurs in several ways such as casting absentee ballots stolen from mailboxes and requesting absentee ballots without permission (with or without an improper change of address). Rumors can indicate this happening and so can any reports made to authorities. Since this type of fraud is done in combination with voter registration fraud and "change of address" schemes then it can be detected in the same way.
  3. Illegally or Improperly "Assisting" Others to Vote their Absentee Ballot occurs regularly when absentee ballots are cast by the infirm, incapacitated and elderly who cannot vote by themselves (or otherwise protest their ballots being marked without permission). Rumor can offer details regarding how and who ran this scheme. Analysis of voting patterns can point groupings of voters residing in institutions such as group homes or assisted living facilities that can further investigation.
  4. Vote-buying is popular because it is cheap and done during Election Day or Early Voting that drives droves of registered voters by bus to a voting location in exchange for $10-$20 (i.e. $2,000 for 200 votes). The only way to know if this happens is when people speak about it happening (word of mouth). Rumors will offer names of those organizing this scheme. Details will offer clues that can establish who were paid to vote against the list of voters who cast ballots. Analysis of voting patterns among lower quality (lower propensity) voters can indicate this scheme from happening.
  5. Hacking Voter Machine or Vote Counting Database is rarely done except in tight elections or else it will be detected by voter polling prior to the election but most especially by exit polling. On rare occasion, the reporting of election results can be so compromised that vote tallies can be completely switched out. This type of fraud involves people who have access within the chain of custody involving ballots, electronic voting machines and the voter count database (which means election volunteers, staff and the third-party vendors involved).

Usually you can only detect the type of fraud being committed well after the election is over and certified and the voter history is made available publicly. However, if you are aware of how to rig elections you can catch it in the midst of it happening or just warn voters of this happening.

Rumors, gossip and even campaign finance reports can help you pin-point the type of fraud and using voter history to determine particular voting patterns that occur in each type of voter fraud.  

We can also narrow the suspects by knowing who are the local ballot brokers and the usual suspects for voter fraud. We can also figure out who these people are who committed fraud by reviewing who stands out in the campaign finance report as well as identifying any PACs or third-party groups such as religious, civic or governmental organizations (like CRA or a Development Authority) associated with them.

Keep tuned in to this blog and I will share more info about voter fraud specifically how it gets done and how to stop it.

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